The Paradox of Hope: Why People Play Lottery Games Even When They Don’t Believe They’ll Win

Every week, millions of people around the world purchase lottery tickets for games like EuroMillions, Powerball, and countless other national and local lotteries. For many, it’s a small ritual, something they do twice a week, week after week, year after year. And yet, when asked, most of these people will admit they don’t actually believe they’ll ever win. So why do they continue to play?

This paradox—the simultaneous skepticism about winning and the persistent behavior of buying tickets—presents an interesting psychological phenomenon. It reveals how human emotions, cognitive biases, and societal influences work together to keep people engaged in lottery games, even when they know the odds are overwhelmingly against them.

The Allure of the “What If?”

At the core of the paradox is the power of hope. Hope is a deeply ingrained human emotion that helps us persevere through life’s uncertainties. Even when the odds are against us, hope allows us to envision a better future. In the case of lottery games, the hope isn’t rooted in logic or probability, but rather in the enticing “what if?”

What if today is the day? What if this ticket holds the winning numbers? What if my life changes overnight?

The “what if?” is compelling enough to keep people buying tickets, even though, in the back of their minds, they understand the chances of winning are almost nonexistent. In EuroMillions, for instance, the odds of hitting the jackpot are 1 in 139 million. To put that into perspective, you’re more likely to be struck by lightning or attacked by a shark than to win the lottery. Yet, people still play, driven by the allure of that slim possibility, no matter how unlikely.

The Cost of Hope: A Small Price for a Big Dream

For many lottery players, the price of a ticket is relatively small, especially when compared to the potential reward. Spending a few euros or dollars on a lottery ticket is seen as a low-cost investment in the dream of a better future. Psychologically, this can be framed as risk vs. reward. The reward—millions of euros or dollars—outweighs the small risk of losing the price of the ticket.

This is where the concept of affordable risk comes into play. For most people, buying a lottery ticket doesn’t represent a major financial decision. It’s a small indulgence, akin to buying a cup of coffee or a magazine. As a result, people rationalize their continued participation, even though they know they probably won’t win. They think, “What’s a few euros if it means I might win millions?” This mindset makes it easy to continue playing week after week.

The “Just in Case” Mentality

Even for those who don’t truly believe they’ll win, there’s a pervasive sense of “just in case.” This mentality can be tied to the fear of missing out (FOMO). No one wants to be the person who skipped buying a ticket only to see their regular numbers come up. The thought of watching someone else win with the numbers you always play can be enough to drive people to continue their routine, even when they’re doubtful about winning.

For some, not buying a ticket can feel like tempting fate. They might say they don’t believe they’ll win, but they can’t shake the feeling that if they stop buying, that will be the one time their numbers are drawn. This creates a kind of psychological trap, where the act of buying the ticket feels necessary, even if only to avoid regret.

Cognitive Dissonance and Lottery Play

The behavior of buying lottery tickets despite not believing in the odds of winning can be explained through cognitive dissonance. Cognitive dissonance occurs when a person holds two conflicting beliefs or behaviors. In this case, the conflict is between the rational understanding that winning is almost impossible and the emotional desire to keep playing.

To resolve this dissonance, many people downplay the importance of logic and probability. Instead of focusing on the astronomical odds, they focus on personal stories or the belief that “someone has to win.” This helps them justify their continued participation, even though it goes against their rational understanding of the situation.

Near-Misses and the Illusion of Control

Another key factor that keeps people playing is the near-miss effect. If someone’s numbers come close to winning, they may feel as though they were “almost there.” This sense of proximity to winning can be incredibly motivating. It creates the illusion that a win is just around the corner, even though each draw is independent, and the chances remain the same regardless of past outcomes.

This feeling of being close to winning ties into the illusion of control—the belief that personal strategies or behaviors can influence the outcome of a random event. Even though the lottery is purely a game of chance, many players engage in rituals, such as picking lucky numbers or sticking to a specific set of numbers each week. These behaviors create the false sense that they have some control over the outcome, which keeps them coming back, week after week.

The Role of Habit and Routine

For many people, playing the lottery becomes part of their routine. Twice a week, they stop by the store or log onto the website to buy their tickets. It becomes a habit, something they do without much thought. This habitual behavior is hard to break, even if they don’t believe they’ll ever win.

From a psychological perspective, habits are powerful because they create a sense of comfort and predictability. The brain likes routines, and once a behavior becomes automatic, it’s difficult to change. In the case of lottery play, the ritual of buying tickets can become so ingrained that even people who are skeptical about winning continue to play out of habit.

Social Influence: Everyone Else Is Doing It

Another factor that contributes to the paradox is social influence. In many cultures, playing the lottery is a common, socially accepted activity. When friends, family, or colleagues are also playing, it reinforces the idea that buying tickets is normal. This can create a sense of community around lottery participation, making it feel like something you “should” do, even if you don’t believe you’ll win.

The widespread participation in lotteries also normalizes the behavior. When you see others doing it, it feels less irrational, even though the odds remain the same. This sense of belonging can be a powerful motivator, keeping people engaged in lottery play, even if they have doubts about ever winning.

Media Stories and the Power of Winners

Finally, the media plays a significant role in why people continue to play lotteries like EuroMillions. News stories about lottery winners are often front-page headlines, showing smiling people holding giant checks and telling tales of lives transformed overnight. These stories reinforce the idea that winning is possible, even if it’s rare.

The media focuses on the winners because their stories are compelling and inspirational. However, the millions of people who lose every week are rarely mentioned. This creates a skewed perception of how likely it is to win. The brain is wired to remember emotional stories more than statistics, which is why the image of a lottery winner sticks with us, even when we know the odds are slim.

Conclusion: The Persistent Power of Hope

The paradox of why people continue to play lottery games like EuroMillions, even when they don’t believe they’ll ever win, is a complex interplay of hope, cognitive biases, habits, and social influences. The “what if?” mentality, the low cost of participation, and the fear of missing out all contribute to the continued behavior, despite the overwhelming odds.

Ultimately, it comes down to hope—a small but powerful force that keeps people dreaming of a better future. Even when the logical part of the brain knows the chances are slim, the emotional part holds on to the possibility, no matter how unlikely it may be. As long as that hope exists, people will continue to buy their lottery tickets, week after week, just in case.